Political ad spend hits $101M on radio as cycles accelerate

The recent Supreme Court ruling in NRSC v. FEC, which removed coordinated spending limits, creates a specific incentive for parties to prioritize broadcast and cable to access the lowest unit rates (LUR). This regulatory shift likely protects linear TV shares from even faster erosion by digital and CTV platforms. However, as premium linear inventory hits capacity in battleground markets like California and Ohio, the resulting overflow will benefit programmatic CTV ecosystems. Streaming strategists should prepare for a massive post-Labor Day surge that will test inventory availability and pricing for non-political brands. Watch for whether the $2.6 billion forecast for CTV is revised upward as campaigns seek to manage frequency outside saturated linear windows.

The 2026 midterm cycle is trending toward record-breaking figures, with AdImpact forecasting $10.8 billion to $11.6 billion in total spending. This surge is largely attributed to highly competitive races, including the California gubernatorial primary—already the most expensive non-presidential contest in state history—and high-stakes special elections, such as the Ohio Senate race to fill the seat formerly held by J.D. Vance. Per S&P Global (April 2026), political ad revenue is expected to account for a record 16.3% of net total broadcast revenue for the year, underscoring the vital role of election cycles in local station sustainability.

A significant driver of this growth is the shifting allocation toward Connected TV (CTV). While broadcast television remains the largest component of political media plans, CTV is the only channel projected to see net growth compared to the 2024 presidential cycle. Per AdImpact (June 2026), CTV political spend is expected to reach $2.6 billion, a nearly 128% increase compared to the 2022 midterms. This growth is fueled by improved targeting capabilities that allow campaigns to reach specific voter segments by district, a critical advantage for House races following local redistricting.

Simultaneously, the regulatory landscape is shifting. Following the June 30, 2024, Supreme Court decision to strike down coordinated spending caps, the FCC Media Bureau reminded broadcasters that party-coordinated ads now qualify for the lowest unit charge (LUC), a discount typically 30% to 50% below standard rates. While this may slightly compress station margins, analysts expect increased demand to offset the lower unit pricing. Per Marketron (June 2026), early spending for this cycle is pacing roughly 30% ahead of the same period in the 2024 cycle, as campaigns move to lock in inventory before the traditional Q3 and Q4 windows become fully saturated.