Political ad spend hits $101M on radio as cycles accelerate
Political advertising spending on radio has reached $101 million for the 2026 cycle, with total political ad spend across all media formats, including connected TV and digital, forecasted to hit $11.6 billion. The recent Supreme Court ruling on coordinated spending between candidates and political parties is expected to further influence campaign budget allocations among broadcast and digital platforms.
Key Takeaways
- AdImpact raised its total 2026 cycle spending forecast to a record $11.6 billion, a 4% increase over the 2024 presidential cycle.
- Connected TV has captured $907 million in year-to-date spending, nearly 45% of the total digital and cable combined spend.
- Republican advertisers currently lead overall spending at $2.10 billion, compared to $1.83 billion from Democratic groups.
- Gray Television and Nexstar lead all broadcast groups in political revenue, generating $320 million and $312 million respectively.
Why It Matters
The recent Supreme Court ruling in NRSC v. FEC, which removed coordinated spending limits, creates a specific incentive for parties to prioritize broadcast and cable to access the lowest unit rates (LUR). This regulatory shift likely protects linear TV shares from even faster erosion by digital and CTV platforms. However, as premium linear inventory hits capacity in battleground markets like California and Ohio, the resulting overflow will benefit programmatic CTV ecosystems. Streaming strategists should prepare for a massive post-Labor Day surge that will test inventory availability and pricing for non-political brands. Watch for whether the $2.6 billion forecast for CTV is revised upward as campaigns seek to manage frequency outside saturated linear windows.
Additional Context
The 2026 midterm cycle is trending toward record-breaking figures, with AdImpact forecasting $10.8 billion to $11.6 billion in total spending. This surge is largely attributed to highly competitive races, including the California gubernatorial primary—already the most expensive non-presidential contest in state history—and high-stakes special elections, such as the Ohio Senate race to fill the seat formerly held by J.D. Vance. Per S&P Global (April 2026), political ad revenue is expected to account for a record 16.3% of net total broadcast revenue for the year, underscoring the vital role of election cycles in local station sustainability. A significant driver of this growth is the shifting allocation toward Connected TV (CTV). While broadcast television remains the largest component of political media plans, CTV is the only channel projected to see net growth compared to the 2024 presidential cycle. Per AdImpact (June 2026), CTV political spend is expected to reach $2.6 billion, a nearly 128% increase compared to the 2022 midterms. This growth is fueled by improved targeting capabilities that allow campaigns to reach specific voter segments by district, a critical advantage for House races following local redistricting. Simultaneously, the regulatory landscape is shifting. Following the June 30, 2024, Supreme Court decision to strike down coordinated spending caps, the FCC Media Bureau reminded broadcasters that party-coordinated ads now qualify for the lowest unit charge (LUC), a discount typically 30% to 50% below standard rates. While this may slightly compress station margins, analysts expect increased demand to offset the lower unit pricing. Per Marketron (June 2026), early spending for this cycle is pacing roughly 30% ahead of the same period in the 2024 cycle, as campaigns move to lock in inventory before the traditional Q3 and Q4 windows become fully saturated.
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