Only 33% of marketers fully trust connected TV performance data

The trust gap creates a valuation ceiling for CTV inventory. While budgets are shifting away from lower-funnel channels due to diminishing returns, the lack of standardized attribution prevents streaming from capturing the full 'performance' premium of search and social. To unlock the next wave of investment, platforms must move beyond reach and completion rates toward verifiable business activities. Watch for a rise in third-party verification and multi-touch attribution integrations to bridge this gap.

The disconnect between investment and trust occurs as the financial stakes for streaming reach record levels. Per eMarketer and IAB forecasts from early 2026, U.S. CTV ad spending is projected to reach approximately $38 billion this year, growing 13.8% annually. For the first time, CTV upfront commitments—estimated at $17.73 billion—are forecast to exceed primetime linear TV upfronts. However, this scale has attracted significant technical risks, with DoubleVerify reporting in May 2026 that CTV fraud schemes and variants rose 140% in the first quarter of the year.

Measurement transparency has become the primary hurdle for the industry's continued expansion. In the Q2 2025 Programmatic Transparency Benchmark, the Association of National Advertisers (ANA) noted that while CTV's share of programmatic spend surged to 44%, it simultaneously lowered overall media productivity scores, highlighting an efficiency gap in the supply chain. Per the ANA, approximately $26.8 billion in global media value remains unrealized annually due to these persistent inefficiencies and the high number of supply-side platforms typically required to execute a single campaign.

In response, the market is shifting toward more curated buying environments. The ANA reported that private marketplace (PMP) transactions now account for nearly 88% of all programmatic spend as buyers look to escape the risks of the open web. Verification is no longer optional for major brands; DoubleVerify research from March 2026 found that one in three CTV impressions delivers to screens that are switched off, resulting in roughly $1 billion in annual waste. As marketers face pressure to justify ROI, the transition from 'reach-based' buying to 'outcome-based' buying is forcing a consolidation of the tech stack around platforms that provide log-level data transparency.