Campaigns use log-level CTV data to link ad exposure to voting

Political advertisers are shifting from surface-level match rates to verifiable turnout outcomes, treating streaming as a deterministic replacement for traditional TV's spray-and-pray model. This transition allows for real-time frequency capping, preventing the over-saturation of partisan bases while closing reach gaps among essential swing voters. For the broader industry, the political vertical serves as a high-stakes test bed for linking high-fidelity identity frameworks to offline behavior at scale. Watch for whether linear TV's projected 60% share of 2026 spend erodes faster as more campaigns validate the efficiency of log-level attribution.

The 2026 midterm elections are projected to be the most expensive in U.S. history, with AdImpact and Cross Screen Media estimating total video ad spending will reach between $10.8 billion and $11.2 billion. While traditional broadcast television is expected to maintain its dominance with roughly 49% of the budget, it is the only medium projected to see a slight spending decline compared to the 2024 cycle. Conversely, connected TV is the primary growth driver, with projections from AdImpact in September 2025 suggesting a 20% increase in streaming spend compared to 2024 levels, as campaigns increasingly prioritize the ability to leverage first-party voter data.

This shift is fueled by a significant change in audience behavior. Per Nielsen's January 2026 report, streaming now commands 47% of all U.S. television time, while traditional broadcast and cable combined have fallen below 43%. Research from LG Ad Solutions in late 2024 highlighted that independent and swing voters—the most critical demographic for competitive races—show the strongest preference for streaming, with 70% choosing it over traditional TV. In statewide contests, combined linear and streaming strategies have demonstrated the ability to increase reach among these persuadable voters from 43% to nearly 90%, according to report data from Tuesday Digital in March 2026.

Efficiency is becoming a necessity as the cost of reaching the 22 million voters classified as 'persuadable' continues to climb. Per Cross Screen Media, campaigns are now projected to spend approximately $516 in video advertising for every single swing voter during the 2026 cycle. To manage these costs, agencies like DSPolitical and FreeWheel announced an extended partnership in May 2026 to provide campaigns with deterministic identity resolution. This allows buyers to move from audience upload to live ad delivery in under 24 hours while maintaining 90% deterministic match rates, ensuring messages reach the correct household before the voter casts a ballot.