BIA raises local advertising forecast to $186.1 billion on political surge

The upward revision confirms that political campaigns are increasingly viewing OTT as a primary vehicle for local targeting, rather than a secondary experimental channel. This influx of capital provides a critical revenue cushion for streaming platforms as they navigate a fragmented local ad market. Beyond the political cycle, the growth in legal services and mobile video suggests that high-intent local categories are permanently shifting budgets toward digital and connected TV environments. Industry observers should monitor whether the 9.8% projected growth in real estate for 2027 can sustain local ad momentum once the $8.6 billion political spending surge recedes.

BIA Advisory Services has built a reputation as one of the few research firms tracking local advertising across all media with granular category-level detail. The firm's mid-year forecast revisions have become a bellwether for local media buyers and station groups alike. In its most recent cycle, BIA projected that digital formats would capture 57% of total local ad revenue by 2027, a milestone that underscores how quickly connected TV and programmatic are displacing traditional local media budgets. That shift is particularly relevant for OTT platforms competing for the same local advertiser dollars that BIA's revised forecast now credits to political spending.

The political advertising surge driving BIA's upward revision sits within a broader regulatory and business landscape. The Federal Communications Commission has maintained its political file transparency requirements for broadcasters, but the rise of CTV political ads has prompted calls from advocacy groups for disclosure parity between broadcast and streaming. Meanwhile, BIA's own analysis from earlier in 2026 estimated that local political ad spending would reach $8.6 billion in the midterm cycle, with digital and CTV capturing an increasing share compared to prior election years. The competitive dynamics among ad-supported streaming services, including FAST channels and local news apps, are intensifying as each platform vies for a slice of that political windfall.

On the technical and measurement side, local advertising's migration to streaming has exposed persistent gaps in addressability and attribution. Nielsen reported in mid-2026 that its local TV measurement now covers CTV inventory in 56 of the top 75 DMAs, a step toward closing the measurement gap that has historically kept local advertisers cautious about OTT budgets. Separately, a study from VideoAmp and KPI found that political CTV ads delivered 3.2x higher completion rates than equivalent linear TV spots during the 2024 cycle, data that BIA's forecast implicitly validates by projecting continued CTV advertising spend. For streaming platforms, the combination of political urgency and improving measurement infrastructure suggests that local ad revenue could become a more durable income stream beyond any single election cycle.