S&P puts Arqiva on CreditWatch negative over UK DTT switch-off risk

The CreditWatch placement directly links Arqiva's creditworthiness to a UK policy decision that hasn't been made yet — whether DTT licenses expire in 2034 or get extended to 2044. For the broader streaming ecosystem, this signals that the UK's IPTV transition is now a credit event, not just a policy debate. Arqiva operates the physical transmission infrastructure carrying roughly half of all UK TV viewing, so any shutdown timeline cascades into broadcaster distribution costs, PSB sustainability, and the competitive positioning of IP-delivered platforms like Freely. Watch for the DCMS consultation response deadline and any signals on which scenario the government leans toward.

The DCMS green paper, titled "Watch this space: a new strategic direction for UK media" and published June 23, 2026, frames DTT wind-down as a question of "when," not "if." The government projects that broadcast-only households will fall from 4.01 million in 2024 to approximately 1.51 million by 2034, while targeting 99% gigabit broadband coverage by 2032 (per GOV.UK, June 2026). The UK's Future TV Taskforce — comprising the BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5, STV, and S4C, plus platform operator Everyone TV — has backed a 2034 transition, arguing that maintaining duplicate DTT and IP distribution systems risks slowing progress and diverts investment from original content (per TVBEurope, June 2026). The PSBs have already launched Freely, an IPTV platform combining live channels with on-demand services.

Arqiva's financials paint a mixed picture. For H1 FY26 (ended December 31, 2025), Media & Broadcast revenue declined 1% year-on-year to £235 million, with the company citing renewal pricing pressures in DTT and DTH (per Arqiva's RNS, February 2026). Smart Utilities Networks revenue surged 66% to £112.3 million, driven by five new AMP8 water-metering contracts. The company secured nearly £450 million in new contracts and renewals, including multi-year DTT extensions through 2030. Fitch maintained a stable outlook on Arqiva in May 2026, per Advanced Television, though it noted exposure to pricing changes in DTT capacity.

The ownership structure adds complexity. Digital 9 Infrastructure's 51.76% economic interest in Arqiva includes a Vendor Loan Note with a balance of £197.6 million as of December 2025, meaning modest changes in Arqiva's enterprise value translate into disproportionate swings in D9's equity, which has already fallen below the VLN balance (per D9 full-year results, via FT.com, March 2026). Polus Capital Management completed its acquisition of Macquarie's 26.54% stake in March 2026 and agreed to buy IFM's 14.84% interest for £8.9 million, consolidating its position as Arqiva's second-largest shareholder (per D9 announcement, via FT.com, March 2026). Government stakeholder forum papers reveal tension between Arqiva's optimism about DTT's future and PSB skepticism, with broadcasters viewing the modelled £87 million annual post-2034 transmission charge as unmanageably high (per GOV.UK stakeholder forum papers).