S&P puts Arqiva on CreditWatch negative as UK eyes 2034 terrestrial TV shutdown

A 2034 DTT shutdown would fundamentally decapitate Arqiva’s core business model, which depends on long-term infrastructure contracts with the BBC and ITV. For the broader industry, this signal from S&P underscores that the financial viability of 'over-the-air' broadcasting is now tied to a ticking regulatory clock. If the UK government prioritizes spectrum reallocation and IPTV transition over DTT extension, infrastructure providers face a sharp contraction in valuation and increased refinancing risks for debt maturing after 2028. Watch the DCMS final consultation response due by late 2026 for a definitive signal on the 2034 vs. 2044 timeline.

The credit pressure on Arqiva follows a period of significant valuation volatility for its primary stakeholders. In February 2026, Digital 9 Infrastructure (D9), which holds a 48% stake in Arqiva via its Wireless OpCo 2, informed the London Stock Exchange that its equity interest in the transmission company was effectively valued at zero. Per TVBEurope, this adjustment occurred because Arqiva's equity value fell below the vendor loan note used for its 2022 acquisition from the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. This financial strain coincides with a mass market pivot; Everyone TV, a joint venture between the UK's major broadcasters, predicted in June 2026 that their new internet-based platform, Freely, would reach 10.5 million homes by 2034.

While Arqiva’s broadcast revenue faces erosion, the company is pivoting toward its Smart Utilities Networks segment, which accounts for 25% of current revenue. According to S&P Global Ratings in June 2026, Arqiva is projected to see 13.5% revenue growth in its fiscal 2026 results, driven by the rollout of ten million smart water meters under the AMP8 regulatory period. However, this diversification may not be enough to offset a total loss of DTT income. Campaign groups like 'Broadcast 2040+' warned in June 2026 that a 2034 shutdown would leave nearly 5 million households without access to universal television, potentially forcing the government to fund multi-billion-pound broadband subsidies to ensure service continuity for vulnerable viewers.