Jamloop has launched a household-level holdout methodology and a geographic lift testing partnership with Recast to provide CTV advertisers with causal incrementality measurement. The platform claims a successful test for a major streaming client that measured 3,224 incremental subscriptions with an estimated 365% ROAS.
This launch addresses the 'conversion gap' by moving beyond last-touch attribution toward causal measurement. By enforcing holdouts at the bidder level rather than reconciling logs post-campaign, Jamloop aims to eliminate the over-crediting common in CTV. As streaming viewership reached 44.8% of total TV usage in May 2025, advertisers are demanding proof of net-new outcomes to justify doubling CTV budget shares. This shift forces competitors to move from delivery metrics like completion rates toward rigorous incrementality to win performance-driven budgets. Watch for whether final ROAS figures for this campaign hold up once the full 30-day attribution window closes.
The push for causal measurement comes as the CTV market faces a structural inflection point. Per the IAB 2026 Outlook Study, US CTV ad spending is projected to reach $37.95 billion this year, growing 13.8% year-over-year. For the first time, eMarketer forecasts suggest CTV upfront commitments of $17.73 billion will exceed primetime linear TV upfront spending, which is projected at $16.98 billion. This transition from a branding supplement to a primary performance channel has intensified scrutiny of traditional metrics; Nielsen reports that while streaming captures over 44% of viewership, it attracts only about 8% of total ad spend, largely due to historical measurement friction.
In the months preceding Jamloop’s announcement, several competitors moved to fortify their own measurement stacks. Per StreamingMeme reporting in March 2026, Smartly signed a letter of intent to acquire INCRMNTAL to integrate always-on incrementality measurement, while Nexxen introduced 'ghost bidding' capabilities to its DSP to isolate lift without requiring separate control groups. Additionally, Kochava recently folded on/off pulse testing into its core product to remove the need for external data science intermediaries, per its Q2 2026 bulletin.
These developments align with a broader industry push for technical standardization. Following the IAB Europe's September 2025 release of an incrementality framework for commerce media, the IAB pushed standardized Conversion APIs in October 2025 to bridge the gap between TV ad exposure and cross-device actions. According to IAB data, two-thirds of advertisers who implemented these standardized signals reported improved ROAS. Jamloop’s partnership with Recast follows this trend by offering GeoLift, a Bayesian methodology designed to capture broader market effects that individual household tracking might miss in fragmented environments.
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