An analysis from AI attribution platform Billy Grace indicates that median return on ad spend increased 26% during Black Friday 2025, challenging the assumption that auction pressure reduces efficiency. The report suggests that last-click attribution models often undervalue upper-funnel video and social channels in driving new customer acquisition.
The data suggests that the traditional assumption of holiday efficiency erosion is flawed when accounting for the full customer journey. For streaming and digital advertisers, this highlights a critical disconnect where last-click measurement may lead brands to defund high-performing video channels like YouTube and TikTok that actually anchor new customer acquisition. As the industry shifts toward unified total-video infrastructure, these findings validate sustained upper-funnel spending even during high-CPM auction periods. Watch for whether 2026 retail budgets shift away from search toward Pinterest and Reddit to capture the 66% new-customer share identified in this cycle.
Brands are increasingly looking to challenge black-box marketing measurement to better understand the impact of their cross-channel investments, while also navigating CTV growth as it becomes a larger component of their total media mix. As programmatic buying surges, advertisers are finding new ways to optimize their reach, often utilizing CTV performance attribution strategies to improve their calibration. To further manage these complex environments, marketers pivot to CTV as a primary driver for scale.
During the 2025 Black Friday season, median ROAS increased by 26% as strong conversion rates successfully countered rising media costs, with median CPMs climbing from €6.50 to €8.83. This growth highlights that holiday efficiency remains strong when accounting for the full customer journey, rather than relying solely on last-click attribution models.
According to the Billy Grace report, median ROAS increased by 26% during the 2025 Black Friday peak season.
Median CPMs rose from €6.50 to €8.83 during the 2025 Black Friday period.
New customers accounted for 66% of total orders during the Black Friday and Cyber Monday window.
Upper-funnel video and social platforms were highly effective, with Reddit driving 88% and YouTube driving 67% of new-customer shares.
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