Adobe Advertising reports that training DSP models on a full base of organic converter data, rather than just ad-exposed users, yields higher campaign conversion rates. By moving beyond traditional retargeting and suppression, marketers can improve audience targeting accuracy and optimize spend toward high-propensity users.
Marketers are hitting a performance ceiling by using first-party data solely to avoid duplicative spend. By integrating the 95% of customers who convert organically into DSP training sets, brands can refine bidding intelligence for Connected TV and video environments where third-party signals are degrading. Within the streaming ecosystem, this transition from 'retargeting' to 'propensity modeling' allows buy-side platforms to compete more effectively with retail media networks that already leverage deep purchase data. Success now depends on whether brands can unify fragmented CRM and loyalty data into actionable programmatic signals. Watch for a rise in autonomous bidding tools that weight impressions based on lifetime value rather than simple last-click attribution.
The push for deeper first-party activation comes as Connected TV (CTV) ad spend is projected to reach $38 billion in 2026, growing twice as fast as the broader U.S. advertising market, per geospot.media (June 2026). This growth is increasingly driven by the 'performance-based marketing approach' cited by industry leaders at DIRECTV, where AI-informed audience segments and predictive modeling are used to justify premium video pricing through measurable outcomes like engagement and action (Streaming Media, March 2026).
Technological barriers to this data integration are also lowering. Adobe recently introduced an AI Assistant for its DSP to reduce audience creation time by 95% and added integrations that allow advertisers to convert first-party segments from customer data platforms like Amperity and Optimizely into universal IDs such as UID2.0 for cookieless targeting (Adobe, April and June 2026). This reflects a broader industry shift toward 'programmatic curation' to address waste; according to IAB’s 2026 Outlook, 65% of CTV advertisers now use first-party data to maintain relevance as third-party cookie deprecation accelerates (IAB, June 2026).
Simultaneously, the rise of retail media networks is heightening competition for demand-side platforms. Per eMarketer (January 2026), retail media ad spend is expected to hit $69.3 billion in 2026, with nearly 20% of CTV dollars flowing to retail media by 2027. By enabling brands to model their own 'high-propensity' audiences from organic data, independent DSPs are attempting to replicate the high-conversion environments typically owned by giants like Amazon and Walmart, which already bridge commerce intent with streaming inventory.
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