AdImpact raises 2026 political ad spend forecast to record $11.6 billion

The upward revision highlights a structural shift where streaming inventory is no longer a secondary consideration but a primary vehicle for political persuasion. For the broader ecosystem, this influx of high-margin political dollars during a midterm cycle will likely squeeze commercial inventory and inflate CPMs across major ad-supported tiers. Broadcast remains the largest recipient at $5.6 billion, but the 20% growth in CTV spend since the 2024 cycle signals that precision targeting is becoming the dominant strategy for reaching cord-cutters in battleground markets. Watch for whether primary-season spending in late Q3 maintains this record pace or leads to early inventory sell-outs on top-tier streaming platforms.

The surge in political spending coincides with a major transition in the streaming advertising landscape. Per eMarketer (June 2026), total U.S. CTV ad spending is forecast to reach $37.95 billion for the year, with upfront commitments for streaming services ($17.73 billion) expected to exceed primetime linear TV upfronts ($16.98 billion) for the first time in history. This broader market maturity provides the programmatic infrastructure necessary for political campaigns to execute the household-level targeting described in AdImpact’s latest report.

Major platforms are already reaping the benefits of this shift. Per MediaNews4U (April 2026), Netflix reported that its ad-supported tier now accounts for over 60% of new signups in eligible markets, projecting $3 billion in total ad revenue for 2026. Furthermore, BIA Advisory Services (April 2026) noted that local advertising momentum is increasingly concentrated in 'converged TV'—a mix of linear and digital video—which is expected to drive total local media spending toward $184.5 billion. While broadcast groups like Nexstar and Sinclair continue to hold significant reach, the rapid adoption of CTV by small and mid-sized political spenders is lowering the entry barrier for down-ballot races, per the IAB (March 2026).