CTV political ad spend to hit $2.7 billion in 2026 midterms

The surge in CTV political ad spend signals a permanent shift in how campaigns manage reach and frequency across a fragmented electorate. By dedicating 23% of budgets to streaming, political buyers are moving away from broad broadcast buys in favor of precise voter-file matching and real-time attribution. This influx of capital will likely tighten premium inventory for non-political advertisers, particularly in local news and live sports segments. As campaigns prioritize ACR data to bridge the gap between linear and digital, the broader streaming ecosystem must prepare for increased demand for transparency and brand safety. Watch for a spike in programmatic CPMs in key battleground markets as the 2026 cycle intensifies.

AdImpact has emerged as the dominant tracker of political advertising spend across media channels. In September 2025, the firm projected that 2026 midterm political TV and streaming ad spend would rise 22% to $10.8 billion, with connected TV identified as the only media category expected to grow versus 2024 levels. That earlier forecast placed CTV at $2.48 billion, meaning AdImpact has since revised its CTV projection upward to $2.7 billion, reflecting accelerated campaign commitments to streaming inventory as the election cycle intensifies.

The regulatory framework governing political advertising on CTV remains a significant gap relative to broadcast. A Congressional Research Service report detailed how connected TV political ads fall outside FCC oversight because CTV platforms are internet-delivered services rather than broadcast licensees, meaning sponsorship identification rules, political file requirements, and lowest-unit-rate obligations that bind broadcasters do not extend to streaming platforms. The report noted that programmatic buying on CTV can complete transactions without human interaction, complicating the disclosure mechanisms Congress originally designed for a human-mediated broadcast environment. Several bills introduced in the 116th Congress attempted to extend disclosure requirements to digital platforms, but the Senate never took up companion legislation to the House's For the People Act of 2019.

For campaigns and agencies, the practical implication is that CTV political buying operates under a fundamentally different compliance regime than broadcast. CTV platforms including Hulu, Roku, Peacock, Tubi, and Pluto TV face no reasonable-access obligation and no equal-time requirement, giving them discretion to accept or reject political ads entirely. This regulatory asymmetry, combined with AdImpact's data showing CTV as the fastest-growing political ad category, positions streaming platforms to capture an increasing share of the $11.6 billion total 2026 cycle budget while operating with fewer transparency obligations than their broadcast counterparts.